An Assurance Fallacy

The “banzhaf Fallacy” Fallacy

An Economic Model of the Planning Fallacy

People tend to underestimate the work involved in completing tasks and consequently finish tasks later than expected or do an inordinate amount of work right before projects are due. We present a theory in which people underpredict and procrastinate because the exante utility benefits of anticipating that a task will be easy to complete outweigh the average ex-post costs of poor planning. We sh...

An enterprise assurance framework

This paper explores generating and conveying confidence in enterprise security. An enterprise assurance framework provides a structure enterprise assurance evidence that strengthens and clarifies the overall enterprise assurance argument. The structure and components of these arguments are defined and then applied to an enterprise. Finally, standards of evidence and evidence trade-offs are ment...

The Comparative Fallacy: An Analysis and Discussion of Selected Research

Ever since the introduction of the “independent grammars assumption,” whereby a child is said to have its own grammar and not just an imitation of adult language, first language (L1) acquisition researchers such as Martin Braine (1963) and others have constructed grammars for children’s languages rather than treat them as defective adult grammars. This is based on the view that language learner...

The Risk-return Fallacy

We assume that in the world of business, higher risks are only taken when rewarded with higher expected returns. This supposition has been confirmed empirically using capital market data. However, accounting measures have yielded puzzling results: using the mean and variance of ROE as measures of return and risk, respectively, Bowman (1980) and other researchers find a negative relationship bet...